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1. Obscure British Slang vs. American Slang by way of Ellen DeGeneres and Hugh Laurie.

Examples:

Chuffed to Bits

Chin Wag

Ba-Donka-Donk

Flossing

Shawty

2. How to Use Occams Razor without Getting Cut



It is important to note that, like any mental model, Occam’s razor is not foolproof. Use it with care, lest you cut yourself. This is especially crucial when it comes to important or risky decisions. There are exceptions to any rule, and we should never blindly follow the results of applying a mental model which logic, experience, or empirical evidence contradict. When you hear hoofbeats behind you, in most cases you should think horses, not zebras—unless you are out on the African savannah.

Furthermore, simple is as simple does. A conclusion can’t rely just on its simplicity. It must be backed by empirical evidence. And when using Occam’s razor to make deductions, we must avoid falling prey to confirmation bias. In the case of the NASA moon landing conspiracy theory, for example, some people consider it simpler for the moon landing to have been faked, others for it to have been real. Lisa Randall best expressed the issues with the narrow application of Occam’s razor in her book, Dark Matter and the Dinosaurs: The Astounding Interconnectedness of the Universe:

Another concern about Occam’s Razor is just a matter of fact. The world is more complicated than any of us would have been likely to conceive. Some particles and properties don’t seem necessary to any physical processes that matter—at least according to what we’ve deduced so far. Yet they exist. Sometimes the simplest model just isn’t the correct one.

This is why it’s important to remember that opting for simpler explanations still requires work. They may be easier to falsify, but still require effort. And that the simpler explanation, although having a higher chance of being correct, is not always true.

Occam’s razor is not intended to be a substitute for critical thinking. It is merely a tool to help make that thinking more efficient. Harlan Coben has disputed many criticisms of Occam’s razor by stating that people fail to understand its exact purpose:

Most people oversimplify Occam’s razor to mean the simplest answer is usually correct. But the real meaning, what the Franciscan friar William of Ockham really wanted to emphasize, is that you shouldn’t complicate, that you shouldn’t “stack” a theory if a simpler explanation was at the ready. Pare it down. Prune the excess.

Remember, Occam’s razor is complemented by other mental models, including fundamental error

distribution, Hanlon’s razor, confirmation bias, availability heuristic and hindsight bias. The nature of mental models is that they tend to all interlock and work best in conjunction.


In other words, sometimes a cigar isn't just a cigar.

3. Television roundup.

* Emergence -- ugh. Extremely frustrating series that is thisclose to being cancelled from my DVR. (It's also apparently not doing that well in the ratings and is unlikely to make it to a second season. So, it's thisclose to being cancelled period, not surprising.)

What's not working?



Better question is what is working? Because most everything isn't. What is working is the actors are well-cast and subversively cast, which I appreciated and the only reason I'm hanging in there. But alas, the writing isn't serving the cast or the production value. In television, you can't save bad writing and direction.

Most of the plot makes little to no sense. Or rather the characters motivations driving it don't -- and in order for plot to work, the characters driving it must work and their actions must be relatable.

Alison Tollman's Chief of Police has brought a mysterious girl into her home. The girl has exhibited on various occasions disturbing and dangerous behavior. And, she's seen footage of the girl blowing out a wall. Add to this, she knows the girl is AI, with programming and technology made by a power tech company, who will do anything to get her back.

So, what does this Chief of Police, who is responsible for the safety of her community do? Does she contact the authorities? Does she contact the FBI? No. She takes the dangerous technology home with her -- to live and bond with her fifteen year old daughter, her father who has cancer, and involves her ex-husband into the mix.

It's your basic evil corporate conspiracy plotline -- where the evil head of the corporation has all the power, no one believes the local authorities, and the evil guy can get away with murder in broad daylight, with thugs who look like Middle Eastern Terrorists.

Cliche? Yes. And not quite believable. Also the bad guys sort of jump up and down and scream look at me, I'm a villain, because I'm portrayed by an actor who always plays villains. (Poor Terry O'Quinn has been typecast. I'd have found it more interesting if the hot Australian guy or Donald Faison had played the bad guy, and O'Quinn played the guy helping her. Or April, the heavy set hacker had lived and helped, while the hot Australian died.)

The hot Australian who is almost killed, and has a bullet in his chest -- somehow manages to make it from Brooklyn to Montauk. Uhm...Montauk is four hours away by train. And not easy to get to from Brooklyn. Possibly longer by car. I know, I've driven half-way from Jamaica and that's a two-three hour drive. When he gets there and the Chief pulls her doctor friend to do emergency surgery, her father is understandably upset -- because the guy stumbled into a house with kids in it, while people were chasing him. Instead of calling for help.

The logistics of this show don't work for anyone who lives in New York and is familiar with Long Island and NYC. (I'm beginning to wonder about the writers.) They go off and find a top secret community in the middle of Suffolk County on Long Island -- okay. Considering how many helicopters, private, commercial and police fly over the island on a daily basis, that's a good trick. Not to mention planes. Railroad. Cars. It's not Maine.

The dialogue is beyond stilted, and Allison Tollman always looks a bit bewildered. If I hadn't seen her in Fargo season 1, I'd think she was a bad actress. (She's not.) I'm beginning to feel sorry for the actors.



* My relationship dramas in descending order...all of which appear to have been renewed or will survive. To be fair, they are all better written than Emergence. Apparently relationship dramas are easier?

This is Us -- interesting narrative structure, if hard to follow at times, using golf as a metaphor. Also subtly delving into various tough social issues ranging from white privilege/class/racism to body image and sexuality. The Randall storyline is at times a bit...strident, but this week's was fun in how it showed Randall figuring out how to work the system that his father always struggled with.
Randall seems to learn from his Dad how to use golf to obtain his aim. Rather cleverly written and among the better Randall and Jack storylines -- particularly in how it weaves between Jack's relationship with his soon-to-be wife's father on the golf course, Randall's learning to play golf via his Dad -- through a father/son bonding project brought on by Jack's jealousy of Randall's black teacher to Randall using golf to play politics with his fellow black councilmen, who love golf. Golf often considered a rich white man's game is somewhat reclaimed as a game for all men regardless of class or color in the episode.

The other two stories, Kevin's and Kate's sort of work...Kate's works slightly better than Kevin's. Although Griffin Dunn remains a joy to watch and adds to every scene. Also Jennifer Morrison is the first actress who appears to have chemistry with Justin Hartley who plays Kevin. Kate's story focuses once again on Kate's negative body image...which we have yet to get the back story on.

Overall one of the better episodes.

Grey's Anatomy -- Meredith's storyline is once again the weak link. Well Meredith and Bailey's. Meredith's feels wrong and not very believable. But it also appears to be coming to end, dare we hope. Honestly the writer's punished Meredith for something that the audience didn't consider a crime and thought the wrong people got punished for...which is why it didn't work and threatened to ruin the characters of Bailey and Katherine.

PAC-West storyline is working, as are Alex and Webber's relationship with that struggling hospital. It's the best storyline this season. As is the Link/Ameila story arc, and the Tom Krasci story this week.

It's a mixed bag.

A Million Little Things -- should just be retitled a Million Little White Lies.

I'm hanging in there for Gary, Eddie and Kathryn at the moment. But the men, generally speaking, are doormats in this series. And the woman self-absorbed whiners. I want to kick Deliah. Kathryn was completely right when she told Deliah that they need to be honest about Charlie's parentage and stop lying. It will just hurt more later, when it eventually comes out, which it will. Deliah is drowning herself in guilt. OR moping in it. When the truth is -- her husband didn't kill himself because she had an affair, but because he abandoned his son ages ago, because the boy's mother wanted him too. Ironically Deliah is doing the same thing to Eddie and Charlie, that Barbara Morgan did to John and his son, PJ. (Assuming PJ is John's son, it's not clear.)

Also Deliah is protecting herself, not her kids. She's afraid of what her kids will think of her. Honey, you had an affair and had a kid as a result, put on your big girl pants and own up to it.

Meanwhile, I also agreed with Gary who told Maggie that it is pathetic and destructive to befriend a perfect stranger as a means of dealing with her brother's death. Her brother died over two years ago, Jason Ritter's (Eric) got her brother's heart. So now, she's befriended him as a means of being connected to her dead brother. She's ignoring Gary and shutting him out. I'm realizing that Maggie's defining problem or baggage is not her cancer, but her brother's death. That's the thing that is destroying her life and holding her back. It's why she stopped treatment for the cancer and why she moved. I feel sorry for Gary, who is the least selfish of the group and about to be kicked the hardest. His dog -- apparently was lost by someone else and isn't really his. And Maggie is involved with a guy who is still obsessed with an ex-fiancee who bore a close resemblance to Maggie and was musical.

Better than last year, though, far less sappy.



* 9-1-1 is getting a spin-off, 9-1-1 Lone Star State. It's basically a procedural with relationship drama intertwined, but everybody tends to remain happy for the most part.

* The Good Place -- very weak season to date. Reminds me a lot of S1, which I'd given up on and got coaxed into retrying. I'm glad I did -- S2 is worth it.
But alas, Michael Schur has a juvenile sense of humor complete with fart jokes. Watching this series is a bit like watching frat boy humor meets philosophical humor. Sometimes it is frat boy humor (which I could do without) and others philosophical whimsy (which more please). It is worth noting that I haven't been able to watch any of Schur's other series and this is the only one I've watched all the way through.

This episode? Frat Boy humor. There was a little philosophical whimsy, but blink and you miss it.

I discussed the sitcom with my neice, who enjoys it more than I do. She likes the thoughtlessness of it. It's light and frothy. Also she's in love with Jason.
(This is the girl who preferred Angel over Spike, and she is just 15...so her taste may get better with age.)

The episode way too much on insult humor (not a fan), fart humor (ugh, seriously are you 12?), and ...had too much of Michael, Janet, Brent, and the gossip guy. With Chidhi acting sort of cliche, along with Tahani being rather cliche.

I agreed with Bad Janet, why in the hell are these folks worth saving?

Oh well, maybe next week's will be better?



* All Rise

Well considering Bluff City Law (the rival procedural) has been cancelled. (Big surprise -- it was boring.) This one has potential. I like the characters and the legal procedural stuff isn't cringe-inducing. I do get pissed at times, but everything ends well. Also the cast is quite good and the characters developed in an interesting way.

*Stumptown is possibly the best of the new dramas at the moment. And the most consistently interesting and compelling. I liked this episode which delved more into Gray and the Cop's backgrounds and motivations, less focus on Dex. Dex basically helps them clean up their mess.

Apparently, Dex has her interview and gets her license. In television shows, PI's get their licenses rather quickly and don't spend much time on boring stake outs.
She got hers in a matter of months. (I'm told it takes two years). But I'm handwaving.

What I like is they've scanned away from any pretence of a love triangle or love relationship. Dex isn't ready for one and doesn't look at either guy in that way.
Also, she doesn't completely trust Gray, who got her brother into danger. Although Gray said he was trying to protect her brother and her. Dex's brother is a lot smarter than he looks. And I like how Dex saves other people's butts and is a badass butt-kicker who can win fights. But also gets bruised in the process.

While it is your typical noirish Private Dick procedural, the flip in gender roles does give it a touch of class and new direction.



Sigh too many television series, too little time. But I wanted to veg this weekend.
And not spend additional money renting or seeing movies. I'm at a loss, there's nothing I really want to see in the movie theaters or theaterically at the moment.
Or nothing I want to pay money to see.

4.Also dragging my butt on buying a bible or a torah bible. (I own several bibles or have, the only one I can find is the Catholic Bible). I guess I figure I can make due for a bit longer in the Bible Study Group that I'm in. (Bible Study by Unitarians (who are either recovering Catholic's/Protestants with baggage or Unitarian with little Bible knowledge and prejudices against it) with a Minister who only can talk about the old testament not the new one. This is a trip in of itself.)

Religion is like politics -- people are so close-minded regarding it, also self-righteous in a really annoying way. I like to study religion, because I find the various mythologies and belief systems and how they intersect fascinating. So many of the religious myths are about men sacrificing themselves to a God in order for humanity or someone to be saved. Another interesting pattern is bad parenting. Not to mention weird-ass sexual rituals and sacrifices.

Also...people are weird about religious holidays and which should and should not be practiced.

Cubical Mate: I don't celebrate election day, I'm Jehova's Witness.
Me: Well, you do know that election day is not a holiday, right?
Cubical Mate doesn't appear convinced.
Me: Most people don't get it off, and if they do it's usually to ensure they have time to vote. Our union is treating it as a holiday in lieu of Veternan's Day, but it isn't.
Cubical Mate: Well I don't vote.
Me: Well -- if you don't vote (pause), never mind. I'm not lecturing you on that since I'm not sure I'm voting in this election -- there isn't really anyone to vote for. And I don't care about the other stuff.

I get where he's coming from on most religious holidays. But refusing to celebrate non-religious holidays is a bit excessive and selfish.

Religion often brings out the selfish and self-righteous ass hole in folks. Which is why I don't like religion or religiousity all that much. Spirituality, I like. Religion - not so much.

You really can't discuss religion or politics effectively without pissing folks off.

Date: 2019-11-04 04:18 pm (UTC)
wendelah1: (Lurking)
From: [personal profile] wendelah1
It's just as well more people like your cubical mate don't vote. His knowledge base is faulty and his judgment is suspect as well.

Based on your recommendation, I will check out Stumptown. I like gender-flipped stuff.

I'm rewatching "The Good Place" with my husband. We agree that season two was by far the best. It's good that it's ending this year because they've run out of interesting material. I fear the ending will be deeply unsatisfying.

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